The core CPI and PCE data have been released, leaving only the non-core CPI data delayed. Amid the Iran war, inflation has once again risen to higher levels, with most sectors seeing widespread price increases due to higher fuel and energy costs. As fuel costs rise, there is a knock-on effect across other consumer products as well. However, inflation has remained within expectations when considering the impact of the war. PCE IndexShortly before the start of the Iran war, a key measure of U.S. … [Read more...]

With the continued delay in the CPI and PCE inflation data, this week’s headlines will focus on unemployment figures. Job reports show an increase of 178,000 workers, though this growth is unlikely to persist given the current state of the economy. Unemployment data has also shown a positive release, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous report. Since the Federal Reserve discontinued rate cuts in December, the outlook remains highly uncertain as it continues to grapple with … [Read more...]

With the current state of affairs, it is not surprising that a majority of the releases scheduled for this week have been delayed until next week. The only notable report set to be released is the consumer sentiment report, which has been showing month-to-month declines. This has led to a very light week, with a heavy slate of inflation data scheduled for release next week. The PCE Index and CPI are both scheduled for next week. Consumer SentimentThe University of Michigan’s Consumer … [Read more...]

While delayed, the Producer Price Index has indicated that the war in Iran has pushed producer prices to new highs, as oil prices have surged amid the conflict, coming in at more than double the expected value. It is unlikely we will see prices recede, even if there is a quick resolution. There will be long-term impacts that continue to keep gas prices elevated until then. Outside of the influential PPI release, the schedule was relatively slim, with only further discussion of the FOMC rate … [Read more...]