The latest Trade Balance data has shown that despite the rigorous action involved with tariffs, it has had little impact on adjusting the trade balance amongst the US and other countries. The imbalance has gone the other direction — becoming worse — the last 3 releases alone.  The unemployment data has shown to be surprisingly resilient as people are not gaining nor losing jobs on the average. Amidst the current economic events and administrative events, there has been some job … [Read more...]

A relatively light week given recent events, with the only notable releases being Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales. Consumer Sentiment has broken its recent downtrend, ticking up slightly. However, in the face of rising gas prices and increasing costs of living, this may shift in the next release. Retail Sales have also shown a positive uptick, indicating that the economy remains resilient despite ongoing global events. Consumer SentimentUS consumer sentiment showed some improvement amid a … [Read more...]

With the full release of all the data for PPI and CPI—albeit delayed—we now have a clearer picture that the recent wars have pushed inflation to a three-year high. The Federal Reserve has made no clear indication of its plans, but for the foreseeable future, much of the speculation points toward keeping rates at their current levels, with no plans to raise or cut them. Consumer Sentiment reports, as well as the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, have also provided insight that … [Read more...]

The core CPI and PCE data have been released, leaving only the non-core CPI data delayed. Amid the Iran war, inflation has once again risen to higher levels, with most sectors seeing widespread price increases due to higher fuel and energy costs. As fuel costs rise, there is a knock-on effect across other consumer products as well. However, inflation has remained within expectations when considering the impact of the war. PCE IndexShortly before the start of the Iran war, a key measure of U.S. … [Read more...]