Very little was released this week due to the major inflation data releases from the previous week. The Leading Economic Index was the most significant—and only—impactful release this week, showing a further decline in overall sentiment about the current economic situation. The majority of the decline was largely driven by expectations for business conditions. The decline was faster than expected, enough to warrant continued monitoring of the Leading Economic Index going forward.
Leading Economic Indicators
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the US declined by 0.3% in June 2025 to 98.8, after no change in May (revised upward from -0.1% originally reported). As a result, the LEI fell by 2.8% over the first half of 2025, a substantially faster rate of decline than the -1.3% contraction over the second half of 2024.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
- 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.05% with the current rate at 5.87%
- 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.01% with the current rate at 6.74%
MND Rate Index
- 30-Yr FHA rates saw no change for this week. Current rates at 6.39%
- 30-Yr VA rates saw no change for this week. Current rates at 6.40%
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 217,000 compared to the expected claims of 227,000. The prior week was 221,000.
What’s Ahead
Personal Income & Spending and PCE Prices will lead the way for data releases next week. Followed up by the Nonfarm Payrolls giving a strong indicator of where the economy is headed for the average consumer.
